REXIG SUMMARY
Housing Market January 2025: How Will Potential Trade Disruptions Impact the GTA Housing Market?
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) has released its Market Outlook and Year in Review Report for 2025, highlighting key trends and forecasts for the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market. The report indicates that a well-supplied housing market will keep average annual home price growth in line with inflation, with moderate increases in home prices expected throughout the year.
Key Highlights for 2025
Home Sales: TRREB forecasts 76,000 home sales in 2025, a 12.4% increase over 2024. This growth is attributed to lower borrowing costs and improved affordability, which are expected to encourage more buyers to enter the market.
Average Selling Price: The average selling price for all home types is projected to rise by 2.6% year-over-year to $1,147,000. Single-family homes are expected to see stronger price growth compared to the condo apartment market, which remains well-supplied.
January 2025 Performance: GTA REALTORS® reported 3,847 home sales in January 2025, a 7.9% decline compared to January 2024. However, new listings surged by 48.6% year-over-year to 12,392. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales increased month-over-month compared to December 2024. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark rose by 0.44% year-over-year, with the average selling price reaching $1,040,994, up 1.5% from January 2024.
Market Insights
Lower borrowing costs are expected to drive increased transactions and a moderate uptick in average selling prices in 2025. However, trade disruptions could temporarily dampen economic growth and consumer confidence, offsetting some of the positive impacts of lower mortgage rates.
Focus on Housing Diversity and Supply
The report emphasizes the importance of prioritizing housing diversity and supply to address affordability challenges. "Missing-middle" housing options, such as townhomes, duplexes, and low-rise multi-unit buildings, as well as purpose-built rentals, are critical to providing attainable housing for individuals and families.
Future Outlook
Looking ahead, the GTA housing market is expected to remain balanced, with moderate price growth driven by lower borrowing costs and increased demand. However, economic uncertainties, including potential trade disruptions, could pose risks to consumer confidence and market stability. To ensure long-term affordability and accessibility, continued efforts to increase housing supply and diversity will be essential. Policymakers, developers, and industry stakeholders must work together to address systemic barriers and create a more sustainable housing market for the region’s growing population.
REGIONAL SPOTLIGHT // JANUARY 2025 Oakville-Milton Region Real Estate Market Report
The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s (TRREB) Market Outlook and Year in Review report highlights that the GTA housing market is expected to remain well-supplied, leading to home price growth that aligns with inflation. As lower borrowing costs become more accessible, an increasing number of homebuyers are anticipated to re-enter the market, contributing to an upward trend in transactions. However, the market may also face temporary challenges due to trade disruptions affecting the broader economy and consumer confidence.
Despite these potential obstacles, the long-term outlook for the real estate sector remains positive, with steady demand and increasing affordability playing key roles in shaping the landscape of housing in 2025.
Home Sales Drop in January 2025
Home Sales: Only 267 homes were sold in January 2025, which is 29.4% fewer than in January 2024.
Historical Comparison: Sales were 33.4% below the 5-year average and 37.3% below the 10-year average for January.
Prices Stay Steady
Average Home Price: The average price of homes sold in January was $1,197,685, down 1.9% from January 2024.
MLS® Home Price Index (HPI): The overall benchmark price was $1,257,800, almost the same as last year.
Single-family homes: $1,498,200 (up 1.4% from last year).
Townhouses/row units: $896,700 (up 3.9% from last year).
Apartments: $630,000 (down 3.7% from last year).
More Homes for Sale
New Listings: There were 978 new listings in January 2025, a 46% jump from January 2024. This is the highest number of new listings in January in over 10 years.
Active Listings: At the end of January, there were 1,655 homes for sale, which is 37.3% more than last year. This is also the highest number of active listings in January in over a decade.
Months of Inventory: It would take 6.2 months to sell all the homes currently listed, which is much higher than the 3.2 months in January 2024 and the long-term average of 3.1 months.
What This Means
The market is now in buyers’ territory, meaning there are more homes for sale than buyers, giving buyers more options and negotiating power. However, one month doesn’t make a trend, so it’s too early to say if this will continue.
A big question mark for the future is the potential trade war with the United States. Since Oakville has one of the largest auto manufacturing plants in Canada, tariffs on manufacturing could hurt jobs, consumer confidence, and housing demand in the area.
Summary
Home sales dropped significantly in January 2025.
Prices stayed steady, with small changes depending on the type of home.
More homes were listed for sale, giving buyers more choices.
The market is leaning toward buyers, but trade issues could impact the future.
Read here to read our economic update for last month.
ECONOMIC SPOTLIGHT
NEWS
The State of the Canadian Job Market & Economy
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